Politics 2024 General Election Thread

Started by Enigma, Apr 28, 2020, in Life Add to Reading List

Who did you/are you voting for?

Poll closed Nov 4, 2020.
  1. Joe Biden

    37.0%
  2. Donald Trump

    15.0%
  3. Third Party

    5.0%
  4. Abstaining

    4.0%
  5. Not a US Citizen, but would vote Biden

    22.0%
  6. Not a US Citizen, but would vote Trump

    9.0%
  7. Not a US Citizen, but would vote third party or abstain

    8.0%
  1. JMG
    Posts: 15,873
    Likes: 38,131
    Joined: Dec 3, 2014

    JMG Teflon

    Aug 30, 2020
    No way Biden is leading in Florida. I've been all over and the enthusiasm for Trump is bigger than 2016.. Where is the enthusiasm for Biden anywhere? The polls are way off and I'm very confident it will be a landslide. People want law and order and these riots really sealed the deal for Biden.
     
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    Mar 28, 2024
  2. Enigma
    Posts: 14,984
    Likes: 17,365
    Joined: Nov 27, 2014

    Enigma Civil liberties > Police safety

    Sep 2, 2020
     
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    Mar 28, 2024
  3. dkdnfbdjdkdddjdjfvcgfl
    Posts: 3,936
    Likes: 8,491
    Joined: Oct 9, 2015

    Sep 2, 2020
    lets hope.
     
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    Mar 28, 2024
  4. M Solo
    Posts: 4,978
    Likes: 21,716
    Joined: Feb 15, 2011

    M Solo Fresh Outta London

    Sep 2, 2020

    I read @Enigma's post and literally thought "Hope so."
     
    Mar 28, 2024
  5. JMG
    Posts: 15,873
    Likes: 38,131
    Joined: Dec 3, 2014

    JMG Teflon

    Sep 2, 2020
     
    0 0
    Mar 28, 2024
  6. Enigma
    Posts: 14,984
    Likes: 17,365
    Joined: Nov 27, 2014

    Enigma Civil liberties > Police safety

    Sep 2, 2020
    Rassmussen polls are garbage lmao. In the 2018 midterms, their final poll had R+1 for the House. The result was D+9. They’re an absolute joke.
     
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  7. M Solo
    Posts: 4,978
    Likes: 21,716
    Joined: Feb 15, 2011

    M Solo Fresh Outta London

    Sep 2, 2020
    This makes me uncomfortable. I get that he predicted that Trump would also win the popular vote in 2016 but still.... this scares the s--- out of me.

     
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    Mar 28, 2024
  8. Swizz
    Posts: 3,363
    Likes: 10,127
    Joined: Feb 15, 2011

    Sep 2, 2020
    in what world does this make sense? Just as an example, Trump has been behind in every single poll except one in Michigan this year. And yet this model has him favored there??

    seems like a joke tbh
     
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  9. RetiredAccount
    Posts: 11,791
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    RetiredAccount Big Time Stuntin Like My Daddy

    Sep 2, 2020
    yes always cause for caution and concern... but we should not cherrypick bad models and polls simply b/c they reinforce the narrative biden wasnt the man for this moment.

    also even rasmussen has biden up +4 today, don't they ay
     
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    Mar 28, 2024
  10. Enigma
    Posts: 14,984
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    Enigma Civil liberties > Police safety

    Sep 2, 2020
    What Democrats should really worry about (& what I’m mostly worried about) is voter suppression—especially in this election cycle. You see what the Trump administration & honestly GOP as a whole is trying to do with USPS & making it much more difficult for voters to vote by mail. That scares the s--- out of me. I don’t doubt for one second that the GOP would steal this election. They do not care about democracy.
     
    Mar 28, 2024
  11. DKC
    Posts: 23,125
    Likes: 80,641
    Joined: Nov 23, 2014

    DKC hank trill

    Sep 2, 2020
    Yep, this is absolutely terrifying to me because once you go down a road like that, it can be extremely hard to turn back.

    https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/20...itarian-states-boring-tolerable-fascism-trump
     
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  12. Enigma
    Posts: 14,984
    Likes: 17,365
    Joined: Nov 27, 2014

    Enigma Civil liberties > Police safety

    Sep 2, 2020
    If Trump wins another 4 years, I genuinely believe we won’t have much of a democracy left when all is said & done. Especially if he wins by a narrow margin riddled with voter suppression. I can’t imagine “fair elections“ being even remotely close to a thing in this country after that.
     
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  13. Detroit24
    Posts: 7,117
    Likes: 10,085
    Joined: Feb 15, 2011

    Sep 2, 2020
    The next celebrity president....in the next 20 years...

    https://www.instagram.com/tv/CEppiNRlpvs/?utm_source=ig_embed
     
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    Mar 28, 2024
  14. M Solo
    Posts: 4,978
    Likes: 21,716
    Joined: Feb 15, 2011

    M Solo Fresh Outta London

    Sep 2, 2020

    It along with your criticism is eerily similar to his 2016 model.
     
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    Mar 28, 2024
  15. Enigma
    Posts: 14,984
    Likes: 17,365
    Joined: Nov 27, 2014

    Enigma Civil liberties > Police safety

    Sep 8, 2020
    We are now in the beginning of the 4th quarter of this Presidential election! What do polling averages say?



    Biden still fairly comfortably ahead by +7.5 nationally. He’s floated around 7.5-8.5 for a majority of the summer. He’s gone up as high as +10 & as low as +6.9. Clinton at her peak in 2016 led by +7.6 & by +4 on Election Day in comparison. What do the models say though?



    Biden is currently favored with a 72% chance of winning the election. Trump still has a significant chance of winning at 28%, that’s better than 1/4 odds. Similar to earlier in the summer though, main reason Trump’s odds still look decent is because we still have 2 months until the election & no debates have happened yet. If nothing changes from now till November, Trump’s chances would be less than 10%. In other words, he still has ground to make up but not all that much.

    football analogy: Biden is up by 14 in the beginning of the 4th Quarter. Game could go either way. Trump could score a TD & make this a close game or Biden could score a TD & make it a blow out. Biggest issue for Trump is that this race has been historically stable. Time is running out & he doesn’t have many opportunities left to “score TDs.” He has the debates & that’s really it.
     
    Mar 28, 2024
  16. DKC
    Posts: 23,125
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    Joined: Nov 23, 2014

    DKC hank trill

    Sep 8, 2020
    @Enigma are you worried about the debates at all?
     
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  17. Sign Language
    Posts: 11,696
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    Location: Screwston

    Sign Language We miss you Screw

    Sep 8, 2020
    How could Dems not be worried about Biden debating? They're gonna have to give him iv amphetamines so he can keep up with Trump. I'm actually wanting Biden to do well and call Trump out on many issues, but I just don't see him being too sharp.
     
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    Mar 28, 2024
  18. Enigma
    Posts: 14,984
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    Enigma Civil liberties > Police safety

    Sep 8, 2020
    A tad bit because Biden’s debate performance in the primary were far from stellar imo but I’m not sure that matters. Viewers consistently rated Biden’s debate performances higher than the media/educated circles did. It’s difficult but we kind of have to keep in mind, Biden isn’t messaging towards college graduates. He’s talking to working-class, blue collar workers. They tend to like him, find him relatable.

    What no one is really talking about either, which I think would benefit Biden, is the debates could potentially be virtual. Biden has already participated in virtual debates (vs Sanders) & he did really well in those. Virtual debates seem a lot more organized & less chaotic in terms of candidates talking over each other & what not.
     
    Mar 28, 2024
  19. DKC
    Posts: 23,125
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    Joined: Nov 23, 2014

    DKC hank trill

    Sep 8, 2020
    Obviously Trump is horrifyingly bad when it comes to actually debating but he’s an entertainer at heart and that resonates with people regardless of whether or not he really says anything of substance. I’d like to think that’s not gonna matter as much this time cuz he’s already in office (so it’s not like his schtick is new, people who love it are already convinced lol) and he’s going against someone who, like you said, many swing voters actually find relatable.

    I also don’t really have a frame of reference for how much these debates really influence voters. My guess would be gaffes affect people’s perception the most because that’s the type of thing that makes headlines and people will see clips of over and over on fox and msnbc.
     
    Mar 28, 2024
  20. Enigma
    Posts: 14,984
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    Enigma Civil liberties > Police safety

    Sep 8, 2020
    It’s going to take a lot for voters to be influenced by the debates. I mean we may see some movement in polls after each debate but I’m talking actual sustained shift in voters vote choice is going to take a lot. Biden (or Trump) would have to completely fall apart or something for the needle to really move & stay there through the remainder of the election. It also doesn’t help Trump that he continues to lower the bar for Biden. Attacking him as “dumb/stupid; can’t talk; can’t answer questions; low energy” etc. Makes it a lot easier for Biden to exceed expectations.

    The goal for the Biden campaign in these debates is to at bare minimum keep it even. If there’s no clear winner in these debates, polls won’t move & Biden can just run out the clock. The Trump campaign needs at least one big debate performance with emphasis on the last debate because that’ll be the last nation wide political event before Election Day. Come mid October, if the Trump campaign doesn’t close the gap by at least 2 points (~+5.5 Biden), im not sure there’s many legal options they have left to win the election. Even at +5.5 Biden 2-3 weeks before the election, I wouldn’t feel the safest but it’s not a position an incumbent president would want to be in.

     
    Mar 28, 2024
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