Sep 9, 2020

Yup. It’s one of the reasons why it’s going to be difficult for the Trump campaign to cut down the lead. Both candidates are known figures & opinions of them are largely already made up. It also doesn’t help that the #1 issue voters care about the most is the pandemic which most Americans disapprove Trump’s handling of. Trump does have an electoral college advantage so he really just needs to cut down the national lead to +4 Biden to have a decent shot at re-election & +3 Biden for it to be a coin flip. It’s doable. Trump did get some favorable polls in Florida today which outside of Pennsylvania is the most important state in this election. Biden is lagging behind Clinton in Latino support there.

 

Sep 8, 2020

It’s going to take a lot for voters to be influenced by the debates. I mean we may see some movement in polls after each debate but I’m talking actual sustained shift in voters vote choice is going to take a lot. Biden (or Trump) would have to completely fall apart or something for the needle to really move & stay there through the remainder of the election. It also doesn’t help Trump that he continues to lower the bar for Biden. Attacking him as “dumb/stupid; can’t talk; can’t answer questions; low energy” etc. Makes it a lot easier for Biden to exceed expectations.

The goal for the Biden campaign in these debates is to at bare minimum keep it even. If there’s no clear winner in these debates, polls won’t move & Biden can just run out the clock. The Trump campaign needs at least one big debate performance with emphasis on the last debate because that’ll be the last nation wide political event before Election Day. Come mid October, if the Trump campaign doesn’t close the gap by at least 2 points (~+5.5 Biden), im not sure there’s many legal options they have left to win the election. Even at +5.5 Biden 2-3 weeks before the election, I wouldn’t feel the safest but it’s not a position an incumbent president would want to be in.

 

Sep 8, 2020

We are now in the beginning of the 4th quarter of this Presidential election! What do polling averages say?



Biden still fairly comfortably ahead by +7.5 nationally. He’s floated around 7.5-8.5 for a majority of the summer. He’s gone up as high as +10 & as low as +6.9. Clinton at her peak in 2016 led by +7.6 & by +4 on Election Day in comparison. What do the models say though?



Biden is currently favored with a 72% chance of winning the election. Trump still has a significant chance of winning at 28%, that’s better than 1/4 odds. Similar to earlier in the summer though, main reason Trump’s odds still look decent is because we still have 2 months until the election & no debates have happened yet. If nothing changes from now till November, Trump’s chances would be less than 10%. In other words, he still has ground to make up but not all that much.

football analogy: Biden is up by 14 in the beginning of the 4th Quarter. Game could go either way. Trump could score a TD & make this a close game or Biden could score a TD & make it a blow out. Biggest issue for Trump is that this race has been historically stable. Time is running out & he doesn’t have many opportunities left to “score TDs.” He has the debates & that’s really it.

 

Sep 2, 2020

lets hope.

 

Jul 23, 2020

image Kanye West and Angela Merkel together in the white house

 

Jul 19, 2020

Chris Wallace really just unintentionally clowning Trump this entire interview

“It’s not the hardest test, there’s a picture & it says what’s that? And it’s an elephant.” LMAOOOOO

 

Jul 3, 2020

My understanding: if you have undergraduate student loan debt from a public university & make under 125K, that debt will be forgiven.

On top of that, he wants to allow people to discharge student loan debt in bankruptcy & expand student loan debt forgiveness programs. Debt forgiveness programs get kind of tricky because not everyone is eligible for each program. I know one program forgives student loans for public servants after 10 years. Another program forgives $5,000 per year for community service. His plan is very similar to Warren’s plan.

 

Jun 18, 2020

Unfortunately he has to lay out the obvious because 2016 made it clear that people don’t know how probability works...at all. Not even like the basics.

 

May 22, 2020

staunch difference in how Trump handles gaffes & how someone with actual integrity handles them.

 

May 2, 2020

That take was a direct observation of your behavior in this thread lol. You are essentially to Biden what a MAGA hat wearer is to Trump. Even using the same rhetoric and claiming that potentially credible allegations are invalid because they are being “peddled by the left”. You are probably worried by the same defeatist mentality Hillary had that leads her to blame Bernie for her loss when the truth is she was overly confident and did not focus enough on rust belt states that had a real chance to swing.

there’s nothing wrong with you discussing the merits of a progressive voting for Biden to help defeat Trump. But instead you are whining about some alleged widespread conspiracy on the left to undermine Biden and essentially demanding they vote for him. It’s okay for people to have valid criticism of a candidate. Joe Biden IS certainly having a mental decline. There are potentially credible sexual assault allegations made against him. Discussing these isn’t an endorsement of Trump, but blindly ignoring these and demanding people support him is eerily Trump-like.

 

May 2, 2020

nobody thinks bernie is going to be the nominee andy, i just would like some functioning human being at the helm so that trump doesn't get re-elected. join me in this cause!

sincere question: do you think current polling, from 6+ months out, is going to be anything but a distant dream of a best-case scenario by the time we get closer to election day? biden has warm associations for a lot of people that are not necessarily going to hold up under the scrutiny of a general election. combine that w what's likely to be lower-than-normal turnout...

sour grapes, weird, totally unquantifiable and unverifiable. like everyone else, i can't say w certainty that the reade accusations are true, but there are enough ways in which they seem credible that they at least merit some discussion, or at least give a moment of pause to his supporters –– rather than the shrill biden cultists who have spent the last six weeks online screaming about the kremlin and #IBelieveJoe. you ppl were trying to get chris hayes fired for mentioning a sexual assault allegation by a presidential nominee's former staffer on a nightly news program. embarrassing!

what if you swapped out "to prove some selfish point" with "to ensure a democrat wins in november."

 

May 1, 2020

why are u being so hostile i'm just worried about our beloved uncle joe

 

May 1, 2020

i think it would be in poor taste to joke about this so know i'm very serious when i say, after watching that video, that this mf definitely has dementia. someone get him to a couch somewhere

 

Apr 30, 2020

I mean the grim reality is you can’t truly disprove a 30 year old allegation like this. Especially while navigating the presidential politics. So many trap doors