Sep 8, 2020

most underrated dynamic of the race is the lack of undecided voters and the lack of independent candidates. I saw one of the election nerds I follow tweet the other day that the combined Hillary/Trump vote at this point in 2016 was like 82%, and the combined Biden/Trump vote right now is 93%+. That really doesn't leave a big slice of persuadable voters, which is very bad if you are Donald Trump and you need to make up a 7-8 point deficit. You not only need to win most undecideds, you probably need to flip some votes

also, my take on the debates: there's a part of me that's worried about Biden, he has had his stumbles in his past and I'm sure he will have more in the future. But the Trump campaign has played this stupidly, painting Biden as a buffoon with dementia who can't speak without stepping on his own d-ck. The most likely outcome? Biden does......fine. And if that happens, the entire Trump argument about Biden's unfitness is dead, simply because they didn't know how to manage expectations

 

Sep 8, 2020

I've been nervous about the debates but I feel better now because 1. Trump won't have a crowd to play off of like in 2016. Sounds silly but I think that's big.

2. This video. Seems like they've got him on the right drug cocktail lol. This is the best he's sounded since 2012 imo

 

Sep 9, 2020

Yup. It’s one of the reasons why it’s going to be difficult for the Trump campaign to cut down the lead. Both candidates are known figures & opinions of them are largely already made up. It also doesn’t help that the #1 issue voters care about the most is the pandemic which most Americans disapprove Trump’s handling of. Trump does have an electoral college advantage so he really just needs to cut down the national lead to +4 Biden to have a decent shot at re-election & +3 Biden for it to be a coin flip. It’s doable. Trump did get some favorable polls in Florida today which outside of Pennsylvania is the most important state in this election. Biden is lagging behind Clinton in Latino support there.

 

Sep 9, 2020

Even if Biden literally died on stage any democrat or liberals would still rather elect his corpse as president over Trump. Same goes for Trump supporters. I mean at this point is there even anyone in the U.S still on the fence of who to vote for between Biden/Trump? I guess there’s still people who don’t normally vote or follow politics that they can try and win over

 

Sep 9, 2020

Yeah the country is so divided and people’s minds are so set it really comes down to turnout. There are more Dems than Republicans so if turnout is higher Dems win, if turnout is lower Republicans win. Also gotta factor that Dems need more than like a4% swing to actually win - anything closer than that means Trump victory due to electoral college advantage

 

Sep 9, 2020

Yeah, that’s the thing about American voters, they aren’t ideological. A lot of them like to claim they are but they’re not. #1 variable that drives vote choice is partisanship. Democrats vote for democrats & Republicans vote for Republicans. Voting across party lines just doesn’t really happen much.

The “swing voters” who election nerds talk about in every election & media annoyingly put on a pedestal are really just politically uninformed voters that are easily persuaded by party elites. They don’t really have a core set of beliefs hence why they drift from voting one party to the next. Those are the voters that ultimately decide elections though.

 

Sep 9, 2020

Does swing voters include people who actually just never vote or just voters who vote either way? I thought the figure was something like only around 50% of those who are eligible to vote actually do it, which includes both party and swing voters. Whatever the number there’s still a big chunk who’ve never voted or plan to because they simply do not care but Trump has caused such a massive divide and media storm for years that even they must have a personal opinion on biden vs trump if they really had to pick one. I doubt someone like Trump would’ve ever gotten elected nor get elected again if every person (or at least most) who’s eligible to vote actually voted. Unless most americans in general are actually as f----- as we tend to joke about and it’s a blessing in disguise

 

Sep 9, 2020

Trump’s colossal a--- division has reached even the general public in Australia. My fb feed for the past year is daily arguments about the latest Trump scandal articles between random aussies who’ve never given a s--- about even local politics and are now suddenly U.S politics pundits who’d love to be able to vote in the U.S 2020 election. Same as the U.K

There’s also all the young people in the U.S who are finally old enough to vote now after having been bombarded non stop with trump/Hillary/Biden news for the past few years. If those latest polls already generally account for all of this then I’ve just way overestimated how much difference new blood would make

 

Sep 9, 2020

“Swing voters” don’t encompass non-voters. Swing voters are people who sway from voting for one party in one election to the other party in the next. They make up a small percentage of American voters but in battleground states or “swing states” that are usually competitive, they make a difference.

Yeah, around half of eligible voters don’t actually vote. I think most Americans don’t care much about politics, including a vast majority of voters. They think about politics maybe every election year? Often times only in a presidential election year. Voters are really disengaged with politics hence why partisanship dictates vote choice so strongly. It’s a short cut to tell people how to vote. The average American voter doesn’t have the time nor the will to research the different trade policies between two candidates. They just don’t care that much so they defer the decision to party ID.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see an uptick in voting this year because of the unusual nature of this election year but unless there’s some kind of incentive for voting or punishment for not voting, 70%+ of Americans turning out to vote is a far fetched fantasy imo. Even with someone as unhinged as Trump in office.

 

Sep 9, 2020

with that massive amount of voter apathy I’m holding the American public collectively responsible if he actually wins again. Don’t be blaming Russians the second time around

 

Sep 10, 2020

Speaking of Russia

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www...-vladimir-putin-un-visit-russia-1530541?amp=1

 

Sep 10, 2020

10/10

 

Sep 15, 2020

#saveourchildren

 

Sep 15, 2020

this could prove to be problematic for Biden in Florida.

 

Sep 18, 2020

FiveThirtyEight has finally rolled out their senate model which shows Democrats as slight favorites (58%) of winning back the Senate.

 

Sep 18, 2020

6 more f---ing weeks.

 

Sep 18, 2020

Yeah, time to take the gloves off now. This makes the battle for the Senate so much more important. Democrats have to be bold here. Look McConnell dead in his face & tell him if he fills this seat, they will pack the court if they win the White House + Senate in November. Biden can tip toe around this if he wants for political reasons, fine but other democratic leaders need fight like h--- for this seat.

 

Sep 18, 2020

seen this online. i agree w the sentiment but to ur point, dems cant come off too nutty and be seen as overplaying their hand. the public should see any effort to replace rbg now as perverse partisan overreach, so lets keep that the focus.

unless ur talking inside baseball tactics w schumer or something (i say this, but in hindsight obama def was way way too passive re Garland in 2016. dunno what else he couldve or shouldve done tho? he way too mild to be a populist..)

 

Sep 18, 2020

also, we're in h--- ayyyyyyy