Feb 20, 2022 At the request of @Sign Language here it is! Obviously still quite a ways out but it’s pretty obvious we’re in a very Republican-leaning political environment: Biden’s approval rating is underwater & about on par with Trump’s approval rating at this point in his presidency. A plurality of Americans want Republicans to control Congress, first time in a while since Republicans have led in this metric. No models have been published yet but it’s clear that Republicans have a significant advantage here. It’s not all loom & doom for Democrats though, redistricting has gone a lot better than expected for them: This will make it easier for Democrats to win the House for the foreseeable future. Far easier than it was after the 2010 redistricting process. At the end of the day, American politics really goes through cycles & while it’s not an exact science, the Party that wins the presidency, losing Congress 2 years later is very much the norm: That’s not to say Democratic voters shouldn’t care: margins matter! While it’s unlikely Democrats keep their majorities in Congress, keeping Republican majorities slim can make a big difference in terms of how the Biden administration can govern post 2022 & will put them in a better position looking ahead at the 2024 election.
Feb 23, 2022 @Enigma how much do you think bail reform is going to hurt Democrats in local and state elections?
Feb 24, 2022 Depends where and/if it’s a salient issue. Or if crime I suppose is a salient issue. I know some crime has increased in certain areas of the country so it could! What’s going to hurt Democrats most is Biden’s approval rating + inflation + COVID. Which sucks because they can’t really control any of this.
Feb 25, 2022 Seems to be an issue in most major cities where the DA has a (D) next to their name. Also, do you think “Beto” has an actual shot to become governor?
Feb 25, 2022 Yeah, the thing with local elections is that they don’t always follow the tide of national elections. Local issues matter! DAs in particular are in a tough spot because contrary what people believe, they can’t control crime rates. DAs respond *after* a crime has occurred. So a lot of DA elections are based on the environment of their community: is crime increasing? Do voters notice and/or care that crime is increasing? Are voters blaming the DA or someone else? Etc. Beto is going to lose but I suppose someone with a D next to their name has to run. On another note, this graph I found illustrates well that despite Democrats probably getting wiped out in November, midterms don’t predict the outcomes of following presidential elections well:
Feb 25, 2022 I know DA’s can’t control crime rates but they can control choosing to let violent offenders out with little to no bail.
Mar 5, 2022 With Democrats being so ineffective at governing and people like this out there, I have no hope for the future of humanity. https://youtube.com/shorts/lo7tWhre9hs?feature=share
Mar 10, 2022 Democrats could have done whatever you wanted them to do & they still would be in the exact same position. The midterm backlash against the party in power is d--- near inevitable. See here:
May 31, 2022 Republicans are likely to win back Congress while running candidates like this. It’s really unfortunate…
May 31, 2022 Probably around 8 years ago I read an article about Herschel Walker making a go at MMA professionally... they had a picture of him... and the first thing I thought he was in good enough shape to do it.... then I read the article... he said he had multiple personalities... and one of his personalities is always playing Russian Roulette... and was going to k--- his wife with a gun. I didn't think they should have let him compete in professional MMA because he was too f----- up mentally. Now he has odds in his favor to be a US Senator.
May 31, 2022 It’s the Democrats fault tbh for major inflation. Gas prices. Failed student debt promises. It should be painfully obvious why the Democratic Party is going into shambles. Putin threatening nuclear war because Biden is weak.
Jun 27, 2022 Democrats are still likely to lose Congress this November but the overturning of Roe & subsequent abortion bans in various states may provide a sliver of an opportunity for Democrats. It’s really the only salient/popular issue that Democrats are beating Republicans on. How much of an impact will it have? No idea. Best case scenario is Democrats run on abortion & keep the Senate—the house is likely out of reach due to gerrymandering (Democrats gerrymander in New York got struck down).
Jun 30, 2022 FiveThirtyEight Election model is up! Republicans are big favorite to win back the House while the Senate is largely a toss up!
Jun 30, 2022 Thanks for letting us know! Now I don't have to check 538 myself for their forecast! By the way, are you nervous about the midterms?!
