May 22, 2015 With Hillary already in, Bernie about to announce, Martin O'Malley looking like a sure thing as well, it is time to start this thread. Anyways- the contenders: Already Running or Actively Exploring Hillary Clinton- Former First Lady, US Senator from New York, and Secretary of State. Currently the prohibitive frontrunner, and currently dominates across the board- huge leads in every state tested and nationally among all demographic groups in the party, and across the ideological spectrum. Current campaign appears based on middle class economic populism, a strong focus on issues important to socially liberal voters like marriage equality and women's health. Based on current polling, would start out as a slight to strong favorite in the general depending on who the Republican nominee is. Bernie Sanders- Independent Senator from Vermont. Identifies as a Socialist Democrat, opted out of running a third party campaign that could help a Republican get elected. Among the most progressive elected officials in the federal Government, Sanders hopes to capitalize on some left wing discomfort with Hillary Clinton's perceived centrism and ties to Wall Street money. Will have some major explaining to do on his fairly pro-NRA position on gun control. Currently far, far behind Hillary in all state and national polling, but has established himself as the easy runner up since announcing, polling in double digits and leaving other candidates in the dust. Certainly has some room to grow as name recognition increases, polling does indicate some trouble in general election matchups. Not someone who is going to edit himself or take a position for political rather than principled reasons. Martin O'Malley- Former Governor of Maryland. The most active of any of the declared or undeclared candidates in the early states, but hasn't made any real traction thus far. Has positioned himself as an electable alternative to Hillary who is not unelectable like Sanders. The unrest in Baltimore have highlighted some of the problems he is likely to run into in a Democratic primary, as his "tough on crime" policies are seen as being a major driver in mass incarceration and poor relations between police and the community. He is also somewhat distrusted by labor due to actions he took as Governor in labor disputes and negotiations. Was very active in 2012, helping Democrats around the country get elected, but does not, thus far, appear to have bought the same kind of goodwill Obama earned for doing that in 2006. Very unlikely to win, but could emerge as the most credible alternative to Hillary if Sanders implodes. Also often mentioned as a VP contender Jim Webb- Former Senator from Virginia and held positions in the Navy and Defense Department. Formed an exploratory committee just weeks after the terrible 2014 midterm elections, hasn't made any legitimate moves since then. Lack of charisma and relative centrism/conservatism make him an extreme long shot in a Democratic primary, not much to see here. Lincoln Chafee- Former US Senator and Governor from Rhode Island. Was a Republican until 2007, switched to Independent and stayed that way until switching to be a Democrat in 2013. Will not be a factor in the race whatsoever. Possible Contenders (who haven't made moves yet) Joe Biden- The obvious choice under normal circumstances. Sitting VPs often run, and are usually the favorite for nomination, like Gore in 2000, and HW Bush in 1988. Hillary is currently occupying that space as the Administration official with a dominant lead in the polls, and Biden is pretty old and seems unlikely to run. Would love to have him in debates, though. He wrecked Giuliani who was an easy frontrunner for 2008 with the one joke "a noun, a verb, and 9/11" Not Running (so leave her alone, ffs) Elizabeth Warren- Has stated about fifty times now in different ways that she isn't running, signed a letter encouraging Hillary to run, and hasn't made any of the moves that would be needed to mount a serious challenge to a frontrunner as strong as Clinton. will be updated if more candidates come out of the woodwork As for me, I expect this to be a pretty boring contest. Want Bernie to pull Hillary to the left and get her on the record on some important issues (she already followed him on saying she would only appoint justices to SCOTUS who would overturn Citizen's United, for instance) but she's running a very different campaign from 2008, is solidly in the mainstream of Democratic primary voters on the issues, and doesn't have a major campaign defining issue to bring her down like Iraq did in 2008. She's absolutely dominant in the polls (far moreso than 2008) and the opposition this far is of a far lower caliber than she faced back then. Hillary is going to be the nominee, the question is how much the primary race ends up damaging her or helping her become a better candidate
May 26, 2015 Bernie and Hillary both with excellent 404 pages for their sites. Sanders will never be President, but he should provide some amusement as well as important debate during the campaign http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/05/26/bernie-sanders_n_7443310.html https://www.hillaryclinton.com/k
May 30, 2015 O'Malley is in, I think he waited too long and won't get much traction unless Bernie totally falls apart
May 30, 2015 RIP Beau Biden. I met him about two years ago.. I knew he had health issues but I assumed based off the news about running for governor, military service etc he was pegged for big things Tragic..
May 31, 2015 This is going to be such a weird election. Yet, it's the first one that I will be able to vote for which is very exciting.
Jun 1, 2015 Really would have loved to see Elizabeth Warren in this candidacy race. Hilary's momentum is huge so I'm expecting a sweep, but I have a good feeling we'll experience a high octane presidential election depending on the Republican candidate.
Jun 4, 2015 http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/...the-support-of-an-old-ally-the-tea#.vhQ1bRkbo Kind of a huge deal. If organized labor gets behind Clinton, particularly teachers who are among the most heavily unionized workforces remaining in the nation, it is going to be next to impossible for anyone else to break past, and it will be a lot harder to make their case why they should. If the groups that exist to improve conditions for working people get behind Clinton, it will be hard for Sanders, for instance, to say that he is the real candidate of the working people. And that's to say nothing of the money and the volunteer forces that these kind of endorsements bring.
Jun 13, 2015 Trillary campaign launch speech today. Interested to see what mix of policy and inspiration she goes for, and if she's got anything to say on TPP Either way, Bernie is kind of failing to make inroads so far, but I'm surprised he's doing as well as he is
Jun 14, 2015 Clinton's going to win but once Sanders is going to push her to left once he gets in the debates. I'm expecting Clinton to be as safe and vague as possible, testing the waters to see if it's safe to voice support for certain policies. If anything, her defeats in the 90's and in 2008 have taught her that she can't just speak her mind openly and talk policy. She has to smile, ease voters in, and play the political game.
Jun 14, 2015 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ls-on-obama-to-negotiate-a-better-trade-deal/ Pretty happy with where she came down overall.
Jun 15, 2015 I really hope she's able to demonstrate leadership here by bridging the gap. It's not a good look for Demos obviously and imo seriously undermines her by passively standing by and letting TPP die. Question is: is there any deal that will actually satisfy unions/progressives?
Jun 21, 2015 Read some portions of Hillary speech the other day. Typical liberal bs about systematic racism. Pandering to Black people just to get votes while doing nothing but hindering the black community by being so eager to give out welfare to lazy free loaders.
