Feb 1, 2016 Well tonight is the night of the first primary caucus in the great () state of Iowa. Democrats: Polls Quinnipiac [Feb 1st] - Shows Hillary within the margin of error with Bernie Sanders with 46% vs Sanders 49%. Monmouth [Jan 28th] - Shows Sanders trailing Clinton by 5% with 42% of the vote. Analysis The big deciding factor for this one is going to be caucus go-er turnout. If it is high, then Sanders will pull off the enormous upset. If school and the weather or other reasons keep the "never caucused before" crowd at home, then Clinton will take the state. Iowa is not a winner take all state, and either way I'm predicting this race will be within 5-10% of each other, so Delegate distribution is proportional so the only big takeaway from a 'W' here is going to be media coverage for the winner. Republicans: Polls Quinnipiac [Feb 1st] - Shows Trump in the lead with 31% of the vote. Cruz is significantly behind at 24%. While Rubio will take 3rd place with 17%. According to Rand Paul he has thousands of college students ready to caucus for him. but with 4% of the vote in this poll, an epic upset seems improbable. Monmouth [Jan 27th] - Trump 30%. Cruz 23%. Rubio 16%. Paul 3%. Analysis Again, trump holds that lead to his enormous advantage with first-time caucus go-ers, much like Sanders. If voter turnout is high on the republican side, expect Trump to seal Iowa, despite missing the last debate. What do you guys think or hope will happen tonight? Also, isn't it kind of f----- up that Iowan's hold so much power in the primary election? Something like 98% of candidate who win Iowa, end up winning it all. Almost as if what happens in Iowa sets the stage for the rest of the country.
Feb 1, 2016 Iowa Caucus isn't always end all, be all though. Mike Huckabee won it in 2008 -- McCain came in fourth and still relatively easy became the Repub nominee. Romney tied with Santorum in 2012. Bill Clinton got 3% of the vote in '92, Dole won it in '88 by 28% more than H.W. Bush, Gephart also beat Dukakis in '88.
Feb 1, 2016 bernie/clinton split delegates, clinton got a few more. it's a win for bernie if anything but he is still going to need to pull out a huge victory in new hampshire at this point (which is projected)
Feb 2, 2016 Meh... Even if he wins New Hampshire by a relatively big margins, we have to remember both Iowa and New Hampshire's demographics heavily favor Bernie. There's nothing to suggest that Bernie has broken through to non-white voters or more moderate democrats. States like Nevada and South Carolina where the demographics are more diverse is where he's going to have a lot of work to do if he wants to win the nomination.
