Politics 2022 U.S. Midterm Elections Thread

Started by Enigma, Feb 20, 2022, in Life Add to Reading List

  1. Enigma
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    Enigma Civil liberties > Police safety

    Feb 20, 2022
    At the request of @Sign Language here it is! Obviously still quite a ways out but it’s pretty obvious we’re in a very Republican-leaning political environment:



    Biden’s approval rating is underwater & about on par with Trump’s approval rating at this point in his presidency.



    A plurality of Americans want Republicans to control Congress, first time in a while since Republicans have led in this metric.

    No models have been published yet but it’s clear that Republicans have a significant advantage here. It’s not all loom & doom for Democrats though, redistricting has gone a lot better than expected for them:



    This will make it easier for Democrats to win the House for the foreseeable future. Far easier than it was after the 2010 redistricting process.

    At the end of the day, American politics really goes through cycles & while it’s not an exact science, the Party that wins the presidency, losing Congress 2 years later is very much the norm:



    That’s not to say Democratic voters shouldn’t care: margins matter! While it’s unlikely Democrats keep their majorities in Congress, keeping Republican majorities slim can make a big difference in terms of how the Biden administration can govern post 2022 & will put them in a better position looking ahead at the 2024 election.
     
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    May 25, 2022
  2. Enigma
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    Enigma Civil liberties > Police safety

    Feb 23, 2022


    redistricting continues to be the lone bright spot for Democrats right now.
     
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  3. Sign Language
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    Feb 23, 2022
    @Enigma how much do you think bail reform is going to hurt Democrats in local and state elections?
     
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  4. Enigma
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    Enigma Civil liberties > Police safety

    Feb 24, 2022
    Depends where and/if it’s a salient issue. Or if crime I suppose is a salient issue. I know some crime has increased in certain areas of the country so it could! What’s going to hurt Democrats most is Biden’s approval rating + inflation + COVID. Which sucks because they can’t really control any of this.
     
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  5. Sign Language
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    Feb 25, 2022
    Seems to be an issue in most major cities where the DA has a (D) next to their name.

    Also, do you think “Beto” has an actual shot to become governor?
     
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  6. Enigma
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    Enigma Civil liberties > Police safety

    Feb 25, 2022
    Yeah, the thing with local elections is that they don’t always follow the tide of national elections. Local issues matter! DAs in particular are in a tough spot because contrary what people believe, they can’t control crime rates. DAs respond *after* a crime has occurred. So a lot of DA elections are based on the environment of their community: is crime increasing? Do voters notice and/or care that crime is increasing? Are voters blaming the DA or someone else? Etc.

    Beto is going to lose but I suppose someone with a D next to their name has to run.

    On another note, this graph I found illustrates well that despite Democrats probably getting wiped out in November, midterms don’t predict the outcomes of following presidential elections well:

     
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  7. Sign Language
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    Feb 25, 2022
    I know DA’s can’t control crime rates but they can control choosing to let violent offenders out with little to no bail.
     
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  8. JMG
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    JMG

    Feb 26, 2022
    FB_IMG_1645799916069.jpg
     
    May 25, 2022
  9. Enigma
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    Enigma Civil liberties > Police safety

    Feb 26, 2022
    Occupy Democrats is pretty dumb. Also, assault rifle bans are dumb.
     
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  10. Head Bussa
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    Mar 5, 2022
    With Democrats being so ineffective at governing and people like this out there, I have no hope for the future of humanity.

    https://youtube.com/shorts/lo7tWhre9hs?feature=share
     
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  11. Enigma
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    Enigma Civil liberties > Police safety

    Mar 10, 2022
    Democrats could have done whatever you wanted them to do & they still would be in the exact same position. The midterm backlash against the party in power is d--- near inevitable. See here:

     
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